ASK Klagenfurt 3–1 Wildon: Result & Stats

ASK Klagenfurt

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wildon

5/10/2025

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 26Stadion Sankt Andrä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

ASK Klagenfurt64%

×Draw19%

Wildon18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASK KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchWildon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.15

ASK Klagenfurt

2.34

Wildon

1.15

ASK Klagenfurt creates 103% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

1.95

creates per match

0.73

1.57

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

ASK Klagenfurt

1.95

Wildon

0.73

allows per match

ASK Klagenfurt

1.57

Wildon

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Wildon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASK Klagenfurt ↓

Wildon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

ASK Klagenfurt or draw

82%

ASK Klagenfurt or Wildon

81%

Draw or Wildon

36%

Winning margin

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

41%

Wildon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

90%

ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

67%

ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

41%

Wildon 1+ goals

68%

Wildon 2+ goals

32%

Wildon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

78%

Wildon (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Wildon away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.95 + Wildon defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.34

Wildon attack 0.73 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

ASK Klagenfurt scores more

64%

level

19%

Wildon scores more

18%

ASK Klagenfurt at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff