ASK Klagenfurt 1–0 Völkermarkt: Result & Stats

ASK Klagenfurt

FT

1 – 0

Völkermarkt

4/9/2023

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 24ASK-Sportanlage Fischl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

ASK Klagenfurt53%

×Draw21%

Völkermarkt26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASK KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchVölkermarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.44

ASK Klagenfurt

2.13

Völkermarkt

1.44

ASK Klagenfurt creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 93 away

2.33

creates per match

1.49

1.39

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

ASK Klagenfurt

2.33

Völkermarkt

1.49

allows per match

ASK Klagenfurt

1.39

Völkermarkt

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Völkermarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASK Klagenfurt ↓

Völkermarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

ASK Klagenfurt or draw

74%

ASK Klagenfurt or Völkermarkt

79%

Draw or Völkermarkt

47%

Winning margin

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

32%

Völkermarkt wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

88%

ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

63%

ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

35%

Völkermarkt 1+ goals

76%

Völkermarkt 2+ goals

42%

Völkermarkt 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

67%

Völkermarkt (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASK Klagenfurt at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Völkermarkt away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASK Klagenfurt attack 2.33 + Völkermarkt defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.13

Völkermarkt attack 1.49 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ASK Klagenfurt scores more

53%

level

21%

Völkermarkt scores more

26%

ASK Klagenfurt at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: ASK Klagenfurt 1–0 Völkermarkt

ASK Klagenfurt beat Völkermarkt 1-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at ASK-Sportanlage Fischl in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.

ASK Klagenfurt vs Völkermarkt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Landesliga - Karnten: ASK Klagenfurt 1–0 Völkermarkt