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ASK Klagenfurt vs SAK Klagenfurt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
FT
0 – 1
SAK Klagenfurt
SAK Klagenfurt
4/3/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 21ASK-Sportanlage Fischl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

ASK Klagenfurt50%
×Draw22%
SAK Klagenfurt28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASK Klagenfurt
1.91
SAK Klagenfurt
1.38

ASK Klagenfurt creates 38% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 61 away

creates per match

ASK Klagenfurt
2.33
SAK Klagenfurt
1.36

allows per match

ASK Klagenfurt
1.39
SAK Klagenfurt
1.48

finishing

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par
SAK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASK Klagenfurt ↓

SAK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

ASK Klagenfurt or draw
72%
ASK Klagenfurt or SAK Klagenfurt
78%
Draw or SAK Klagenfurt
50%

Winning margin

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
28%
SAK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
85%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
57%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
30%
SAK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
75%
SAK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
40%
SAK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
64%
SAK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASK Klagenfurt at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

SAK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASK Klagenfurt attack 2.33 + SAK Klagenfurt defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.91

SAK Klagenfurt attack 1.36 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ASK Klagenfurt scores more
50%
level
22%
SAK Klagenfurt scores more
28%

ASK Klagenfurt at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASK Klagenfurt vs SAK Klagenfurt

SAK Klagenfurt beat ASK Klagenfurt 1-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at ASK-Sportanlage Fischl in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.