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Ashford United vs Merstham — League #57 2026

Ashford United
Ashford United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Merstham
Merstham
1/17/2026League #57League #57

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ashford United59%
×Draw20%
Merstham21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashford United
2.33
Merstham
1.33

Ashford United creates 75% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Ashford United
3.00
Merstham
1.33

allows per match

Ashford United
1.33
Merstham
1.67

finishing

Ashford United+0.00on par
Merstham+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashford United ↓

Merstham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ashford United or draw
79%
Ashford United or Merstham
80%
Draw or Merstham
41%

Winning margin

Ashford United wins by 2+
38%
Merstham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ashford United 1+ goals
90%
Ashford United 2+ goals
67%
Ashford United 3+ goals
41%
Merstham 1+ goals
74%
Merstham 2+ goals
38%
Merstham 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ashford United (draw refunded)
74%
Merstham (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashford United at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Merstham away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashford United attack 3.00 + Merstham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Merstham attack 1.33 + Ashford United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ashford United scores more
59%
level
20%
Merstham scores more
21%

Ashford United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ashford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #57: Ashford United 1–2 Merstham

Merstham beat Ashford United 2-1 in League #57 on January 17, 2026.