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Ashford United vs Eastbourne Town — League #57 2026

Ashford United
Ashford United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Eastbourne Town
Eastbourne Town
2/28/2026League #57League #57

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ashford United52%
×Draw20%
Eastbourne Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashford United
2.30
Eastbourne Town
1.67

Ashford United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ashford United
3.00
Eastbourne Town
2.00

allows per match

Ashford United
1.33
Eastbourne Town
1.60

finishing

Ashford United+0.00on par
Eastbourne Town+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashford United ↓

Eastbourne Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Ashford United or draw
72%
Ashford United or Eastbourne Town
80%
Draw or Eastbourne Town
48%

Winning margin

Ashford United wins by 2+
31%
Eastbourne Town wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ashford United 1+ goals
90%
Ashford United 2+ goals
67%
Ashford United 3+ goals
40%
Eastbourne Town 1+ goals
81%
Eastbourne Town 2+ goals
50%
Eastbourne Town 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ashford United (draw refunded)
65%
Eastbourne Town (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashford United at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Eastbourne Town away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashford United attack 3.00 + Eastbourne Town defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Eastbourne Town attack 2.00 + Ashford United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ashford United scores more
52%
level
20%
Eastbourne Town scores more
28%

Ashford United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ashford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #57: Ashford United 2–1 Eastbourne Town

Ashford United beat Eastbourne Town 2-1 in League #57 on February 28, 2026.