Ashford Town (Middx) 3–0 Oxford United W

Ashford Town (Middx)

3 – 0

Oxford United W

11/28/2021

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Robert Parker Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ashford Town (Middx)33%

×Draw19%

Oxford United W49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ashford Town (Middx)Expected goals in this matchOxford United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

2.75

Ashford Town (Middx)

2.25

Oxford United W

2.75

Oxford United W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

3.33

creates per match

3.50

2.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Ashford Town (Middx)

3.33

Oxford United W

3.50

allows per match

Ashford Town (Middx)

2.00

Oxford United W

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ashford Town (Middx)+0.00on par

Oxford United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashford Town (Middx) ↓

Oxford United W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–42%

1–02%

1–14%

1–26%

1–35%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Ashford Town (Middx) or draw

51%

Ashford Town (Middx) or Oxford United W

81%

Draw or Oxford United W

67%

Winning margin

Ashford Town (Middx) wins by 2+

18%

Oxford United W wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Ashford Town (Middx) 1+ goals

89%

Ashford Town (Middx) 2+ goals

65%

Ashford Town (Middx) 3+ goals

39%

Oxford United W 1+ goals

93%

Oxford United W 2+ goals

75%

Oxford United W 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Ashford Town (Middx) (draw refunded)

40%

Oxford United W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ashford Town (Middx) at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Oxford United W away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ashford Town (Middx) attack 3.33 + Oxford United W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.25

Oxford United W attack 3.50 + Ashford Town (Middx) defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ashford Town (Middx) scores more

33%

level

19%

Oxford United W scores more

49%

Oxford United W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oxford United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff