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Ashford Town (Middx) vs London City Lionesses W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Ashford Town (Middx)
Ashford Town (Middx)
FT
1 – 6
London City Lionesses W
London City Lionesses W
12/12/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Robert Parker Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ashford Town (Middx)55%
×Draw19%
London City Lionesses W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashford Town (Middx)
2.67
London City Lionesses W
1.85

Ashford Town (Middx) creates 44% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ashford Town (Middx)
3.33
London City Lionesses W
1.71

allows per match

Ashford Town (Middx)
2.00
London City Lionesses W
2.00

finishing

Ashford Town (Middx)+0.00on par
London City Lionesses W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashford Town (Middx) ↓

London City Lionesses W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Ashford Town (Middx) or draw
73%
Ashford Town (Middx) or London City Lionesses W
81%
Draw or London City Lionesses W
45%

Winning margin

Ashford Town (Middx) wins by 2+
35%
London City Lionesses W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ashford Town (Middx) 1+ goals
93%
Ashford Town (Middx) 2+ goals
74%
Ashford Town (Middx) 3+ goals
49%
London City Lionesses W 1+ goals
84%
London City Lionesses W 2+ goals
55%
London City Lionesses W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ashford Town (Middx) (draw refunded)
67%
London City Lionesses W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashford Town (Middx) at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

London City Lionesses W away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashford Town (Middx) attack 3.33 + London City Lionesses W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

London City Lionesses W attack 1.71 + Ashford Town (Middx) defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ashford Town (Middx) scores more
55%
level
19%
London City Lionesses W scores more
27%

Ashford Town (Middx) at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ashford Town (Middx) will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Ashford Town (Middx) 1–6 London City Lionesses W

London City Lionesses W beat Ashford Town (Middx) 6-1 in FA Women's Cup on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at The Robert Parker Stadium in Stanwell, Surrey.