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Asheville City vs Peachtree City — USL League Two 2018

Asheville City
Asheville City
FT
3 – 1
Peachtree City
Peachtree City
6/5/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 19Greenwood Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Asheville City73%
×Draw17%
Peachtree City10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asheville City
2.36
Peachtree City
0.76

Asheville City creates 211% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 20 away

creates per match

Asheville City
2.57
Peachtree City
0.90

allows per match

Asheville City
0.61
Peachtree City
2.15

finishing

Asheville City+0.00on par
Peachtree City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asheville City ↓

Peachtree City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Asheville City or draw
90%
Asheville City or Peachtree City
83%
Draw or Peachtree City
27%

Winning margin

Asheville City wins by 2+
50%
Peachtree City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Asheville City 1+ goals
90%
Asheville City 2+ goals
68%
Asheville City 3+ goals
41%
Peachtree City 1+ goals
53%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
18%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Asheville City (draw refunded)
88%
Peachtree City (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asheville City at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.61 · 46 matches

Peachtree City away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asheville City attack 2.57 + Peachtree City defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.36

Peachtree City attack 0.90 + Asheville City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Asheville City scores more
73%
level
17%
Peachtree City scores more
10%

Asheville City at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Asheville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asheville City 3 – 1 Peachtree City

Asheville City beat Peachtree City 3-1 in USL League Two on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Greenwood Field in Asheville.