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Ashdod vs Maccabi Petah Tikva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Ashdod
Ashdod
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
10/26/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 8Yud-Alef Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ashdod43%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Petah Tikva31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashdod
1.42
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.17

Ashdod creates 21% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 68 away

creates per match

Ashdod
1.27
Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.94

allows per match

Ashdod
1.41
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.57

finishing

Ashdod+0.00on par
Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashdod ↓

Maccabi Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ashdod or draw
69%
Ashdod or Maccabi Petah Tikva
74%
Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva
57%

Winning margin

Ashdod wins by 2+
20%
Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ashdod 1+ goals
76%
Ashdod 2+ goals
41%
Ashdod 3+ goals
17%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
69%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
33%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ashdod (draw refunded)
58%
Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashdod at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashdod attack 1.27 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 0.94 + Ashdod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ashdod scores more
43%
level
26%
Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
31%

Ashdod at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Ashdod 0–0 Maccabi Petah Tikva

Ashdod and Maccabi Petah Tikva drew 0-0 in Ligat Ha'al on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Yud-Alef Stadium in Ashdod.