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Ashdod vs Maccabi Netanya — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Ashdod
Ashdod
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Netanya
4/5/2026Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 25Yud-Alef Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Ashdod40%
×Draw25%
Maccabi Netanya35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashdod
1.44
Maccabi Netanya
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 118 away

creates per match

Ashdod
1.27
Maccabi Netanya
1.25

allows per match

Ashdod
1.41
Maccabi Netanya
1.61

finishing

Ashdod+0.00on par
Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashdod ↓

Maccabi Netanya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ashdod or draw
65%
Ashdod or Maccabi Netanya
75%
Draw or Maccabi Netanya
60%

Winning margin

Ashdod wins by 2+
19%
Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ashdod 1+ goals
76%
Ashdod 2+ goals
42%
Ashdod 3+ goals
18%
Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals
74%
Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals
38%
Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ashdod (draw refunded)
53%
Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashdod at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Maccabi Netanya away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.61 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashdod attack 1.27 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.44

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.25 + Ashdod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ashdod scores more
40%
level
25%
Maccabi Netanya scores more
35%

Ashdod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Ashdod 2–3 Maccabi Netanya

Maccabi Netanya beat Ashdod 3-2 in Ligat Ha'al on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Yud-Alef Stadium in Ashdod.