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Ashdod vs Maccabi Bnei Raina — State Cup 2019

Ashdod
Ashdod
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Maccabi Bnei Rainaadvanced
2/25/2025State CupState Cup · Quarter-finalsYud-Alef Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ashdod29%
×Draw21%
Maccabi Bnei Raina51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashdod
1.58
Maccabi Bnei Raina
2.15

Maccabi Bnei Raina creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ashdod
1.56
Maccabi Bnei Raina
2.30

allows per match

Ashdod
2.00
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60

finishing

Ashdod+0.00on par
Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashdod ↓

Maccabi Bnei Raina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ashdod or draw
49%
Ashdod or Maccabi Bnei Raina
79%
Draw or Maccabi Bnei Raina
71%

Winning margin

Ashdod wins by 2+
13%
Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Ashdod 1+ goals
79%
Ashdod 2+ goals
47%
Ashdod 3+ goals
21%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals
88%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals
63%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Ashdod (draw refunded)
36%
Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashdod at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashdod attack 1.56 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 2.30 + Ashdod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ashdod scores more
29%
level
21%
Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more
51%

Maccabi Bnei Raina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Maccabi Bnei Raina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ashdod vs Maccabi Bnei Raina

Maccabi Bnei Raina beat Ashdod 3-1 in State Cup on February 25, 2025.

The match was played at Yud-Alef Stadium in Ashdod.