Ashdod 0–2 Ironi Tiberias: Result & Stats

Ashdod

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Ironi Tiberias

1/26/2024

State Cup · 8th RoundYud-Alef Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ashdod18%

×Draw22%

Ironi Tiberias60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AshdodExpected goals in this matchIroni Tiberias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.92

Ashdod

0.95

Ironi Tiberias

1.92

Ironi Tiberias creates 102% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.56

creates per match

1.83

2.00

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Ashdod

1.56

Ironi Tiberias

1.83

allows per match

Ashdod

2.00

Ironi Tiberias

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ashdod+0.00on par

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashdod ↓

Ironi Tiberias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ashdod or draw

40%

Ashdod or Ironi Tiberias

78%

Draw or Ironi Tiberias

82%

Winning margin

Ashdod wins by 2+

6%

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Ashdod 1+ goals

61%

Ashdod 2+ goals

25%

Ashdod 3+ goals

7%

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals

85%

Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals

57%

Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Ashdod (draw refunded)

23%

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashdod at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashdod attack 1.56 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.83 + Ashdod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ashdod scores more

18%

level

22%

Ironi Tiberias scores more

60%

Ironi Tiberias at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff