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Ashdod vs Hapoel Tel Aviv — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Ashdod
Ashdod
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv
12/5/2023Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 7Yud-Alef Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Ashdod40%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Tel Aviv34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashdod
1.34
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.21

Ashdod creates 11% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 105 away

creates per match

Ashdod
1.27
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.02

allows per match

Ashdod
1.41
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.42

finishing

Ashdod+0.00on par
Hapoel Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashdod ↓

Hapoel Tel Aviv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ashdod or draw
66%
Ashdod or Hapoel Tel Aviv
73%
Draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv
60%

Winning margin

Ashdod wins by 2+
18%
Hapoel Tel Aviv wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ashdod 1+ goals
74%
Ashdod 2+ goals
39%
Ashdod 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ashdod (draw refunded)
54%
Hapoel Tel Aviv (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashdod at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Hapoel Tel Aviv away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashdod attack 1.27 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.02 + Ashdod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ashdod scores more
40%
level
27%
Hapoel Tel Aviv scores more
34%

Ashdod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ashdod vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Ashdod beat Hapoel Tel Aviv 2-1 in Ligat Ha'al on December 5, 2023.

The match was played at Yud-Alef Stadium in Ashdod.