Ashdod vs Hapoel Kfar Saba — Ligat Ha'al 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Ashdod44%
Hapoel Kfar Saba29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ashdod creates 28% more chances
Season form · 106 home / 21 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ashdod ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ashdod at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 106 matches
Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ashdod attack 1.28 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.45
Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 0.81 + Ashdod defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Ashdod at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Beitar Jerusalem
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Netanya
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel KatamonAshdod
Maccabi Bnei RainaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ashdod host Hapoel Kfar Saba on Wednesday, 24 June 2020 at 17:15. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2019/2020 season.
Ashdod 2 – 3 Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba beat Ashdod 3-2 in Ligat Ha'al on June 24, 2020.
Goals: A. Solomon (5'), M. Kamaheni (11'), O. Fadida (23'), L. Kizito (52'), S. Azulay (72').
The match was played at Yud-Alef Stadium in Ashdod.