Ashanti Gold 1–1 Soccer Intellectuals

Ashanti Gold

FT

1 – 1

Soccer Intellectuals

1/18/2026

Division One League · Round 16Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ashanti Gold65%

×Draw23%

Soccer Intellectuals12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ashanti GoldExpected goals in this matchSoccer Intellectuals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.60

Ashanti Gold

1.73

Soccer Intellectuals

0.60

Ashanti Gold creates 188% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

0.53

0.67

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Ashanti Gold

2.00

Soccer Intellectuals

0.53

allows per match

Ashanti Gold

0.67

Soccer Intellectuals

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Soccer Intellectuals+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Soccer Intellectuals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw

88%

Ashanti Gold or Soccer Intellectuals

77%

Draw or Soccer Intellectuals

35%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+

37%

Soccer Intellectuals wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals

82%

Ashanti Gold 2+ goals

52%

Ashanti Gold 3+ goals

25%

Soccer Intellectuals 1+ goals

45%

Soccer Intellectuals 2+ goals

12%

Soccer Intellectuals 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)

84%

Soccer Intellectuals (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Soccer Intellectuals away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 2.00 + Soccer Intellectuals defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Soccer Intellectuals attack 0.53 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more

65%

level

23%

Soccer Intellectuals scores more

12%

Ashanti Gold at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff