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Ashanti Gold vs Legon Cities — Premier League 2019

Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
FT
0 – 0
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
12/5/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ashanti Gold62%
×Draw25%
Legon Cities14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashanti Gold
1.57
Legon Cities
0.58

Ashanti Gold creates 171% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 93 away

creates per match

Ashanti Gold
1.76
Legon Cities
0.59

allows per match

Ashanti Gold
0.57
Legon Cities
1.38

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw
86%
Ashanti Gold or Legon Cities
75%
Draw or Legon Cities
38%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
34%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
79%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
46%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
21%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
44%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
12%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
82%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.57 · 46 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.76 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.57

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more
62%
level
25%
Legon Cities scores more
14%

Ashanti Gold at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
49'
G. K. Brokelyn
51'
Y. Annor
58'
Y. Annor← A. Salam

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ashanti Gold vs Legon Cities

Ashanti Gold and Legon Cities drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.