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Ashanti Gold vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
FT
5 – 1
King Faisal
King Faisal
Y. Annor 90+2', 83'
O. Agyemang 48', 16'
D. Sandan Abagna 29'
K. Preprah 27'
12/16/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ashanti Gold63%
×Draw23%
King Faisal14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashanti Gold
1.73
King Faisal
0.66

Ashanti Gold creates 162% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Ashanti Gold
1.78
King Faisal
0.73

allows per match

Ashanti Gold
0.58
King Faisal
1.67

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw
86%
Ashanti Gold or King Faisal
77%
Draw or King Faisal
37%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
36%
King Faisal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
82%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
52%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
25%
King Faisal 1+ goals
48%
King Faisal 2+ goals
14%
King Faisal 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
82%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.67 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.78 + King Faisal defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

King Faisal attack 0.73 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more
63%
level
23%
King Faisal scores more
14%

Ashanti Gold at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
O. Agyemang
27'
K. Preprah
28'
29'
D. Sandan Abagna
45'
K. PreprahMissed penalty
46'
S. Kusi← S. Kusi
48'
O. Agyemang
50'
53'
M. Mustapha← M. Mustapha
58'
71'
Prince Otubua← Prince Otubua
71'
A. Addai← J. Aseidu
78'
80'
S. Bentil← S. Bentil
83'
Y. Annor
90+2'
Y. Annor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ashanti Gold 5–1 King Faisal

Ashanti Gold beat King Faisal 5-1 in Premier League on December 16, 2020.

Goals: O. Agyemang (16', 48'), K. Preprah (27'), D. Sandan Abagna (29'), Y. Annor (83', 90+2').

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.