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Ashanti Gold vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
FT
4 – 2
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
D. Sandan Abagna 90+4'
D. Boadu 69', 60'
M. Appiah 47'
B. Tweneboah 85'
B. Boateng 3'
12/13/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ashanti Gold66%
×Draw22%
Elmina Sharks12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashanti Gold
1.77
Elmina Sharks
0.58

Ashanti Gold creates 205% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 41 away

creates per match

Ashanti Gold
1.78
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

Ashanti Gold
0.58
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw
88%
Ashanti Gold or Elmina Sharks
78%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
34%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
39%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
83%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
53%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
26%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
44%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
12%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
85%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.78 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more
66%
level
22%
Elmina Sharks scores more
12%

Ashanti Gold at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
B. Boateng
8'
E. Esso
42'
A. Owusu← A. Owusu
47'
M. Appiah
52'
I. Hammond← I. Hammond
57'
E. Addington← E. Addington
60'
D. Boadu
69'
D. Boadu
70'
71'
72'
E. Obeng← E. Obeng
85'
B. Tweneboah
90+4'
D. Sandan Abagna

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ashanti Gold 4–2 Elmina Sharks

Ashanti Gold beat Elmina Sharks 4-2 in Premier League on December 13, 2020.

Goals: B. Boateng (3'), M. Appiah (47'), D. Boadu (60', 69'), B. Tweneboah (85'), D. Sandan Abagna (90+4').

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.