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Ashanti Gold vs Bibiani Gold Stars — Premier League 2019

Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
F. Akoto 66'
Y. Annor 36' (pen)
O. Prince 80'
E. Appau 57'
2/13/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ashanti Gold61%
×Draw24%
Bibiani Gold Stars15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashanti Gold
1.65
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.67

Ashanti Gold creates 146% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ashanti Gold
1.80
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.70

allows per match

Ashanti Gold
0.63
Bibiani Gold Stars
1.50

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par
Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw
85%
Ashanti Gold or Bibiani Gold Stars
76%
Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars
39%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
34%
Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
81%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
49%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
23%
Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
49%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
15%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
80%
Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.63 · 41 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.80 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more
61%
level
24%
Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
15%

Ashanti Gold at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
S. OwusuMissed penalty
36'
Y. AnnorPenalty
46'
J. Amoah← J. Amoah
57'
E. Appau
62'
R. Emerys← R. Emerys
62'
A. Salam← A. Salam
66'
F. Akoto
80'
O. Prince

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ashanti Gold 2 – 2 Bibiani Gold Stars

Ashanti Gold and Bibiani Gold Stars drew 2-2 in Premier League on February 13, 2022.

Goals: Y. Annor (36' pen), E. Appau (57'), F. Akoto (66'), O. Prince (80').

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.