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Aşgabat vs Merw — Ýokary Liga 2020

Aşgabat
Aşgabat
FT
2 – 0
Merw
Merw
11/12/2023Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 24Nisa Çandybyl stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Aşgabat50%
×Draw24%
Merw26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aşgabat
1.72
Merw
1.18

Aşgabat creates 46% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 84 away

creates per match

Aşgabat
1.32
Merw
0.73

allows per match

Aşgabat
1.62
Merw
2.12

finishing

Aşgabat+0.00on par
Merw+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aşgabat ↓

Merw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aşgabat or draw
74%
Aşgabat or Merw
76%
Draw or Merw
50%

Winning margin

Aşgabat wins by 2+
27%
Merw wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aşgabat 1+ goals
82%
Aşgabat 2+ goals
51%
Aşgabat 3+ goals
25%
Merw 1+ goals
69%
Merw 2+ goals
33%
Merw 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aşgabat (draw refunded)
66%
Merw (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aşgabat at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.62 · 81 matches

Merw away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.12 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aşgabat attack 1.32 + Merw defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.72

Merw attack 0.73 + Aşgabat defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aşgabat scores more
50%
level
24%
Merw scores more
26%

Aşgabat at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aşgabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aşgabat 2 – 0 Merw

Aşgabat beat Merw 2-0 in Ýokary Liga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Nisa Çandybyl stadiony in Ashgabat.