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Aşgabat vs Köpetdag Aşgabat — Ýokary Liga 2020

Aşgabat
Aşgabat
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Köpetdag Aşgabat
Köpetdag Aşgabat
5/17/2025Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 11Nisa Çandybyl stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Aşgabat43%
×Draw24%
Köpetdag Aşgabat32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aşgabat
1.60
Köpetdag Aşgabat
1.35

Aşgabat creates 19% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 86 away

creates per match

Aşgabat
1.32
Köpetdag Aşgabat
1.09

allows per match

Aşgabat
1.62
Köpetdag Aşgabat
1.87

finishing

Aşgabat+0.00on par
Köpetdag Aşgabat+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aşgabat ↓

Köpetdag Aşgabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aşgabat or draw
68%
Aşgabat or Köpetdag Aşgabat
76%
Draw or Köpetdag Aşgabat
57%

Winning margin

Aşgabat wins by 2+
22%
Köpetdag Aşgabat wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Aşgabat 1+ goals
80%
Aşgabat 2+ goals
47%
Aşgabat 3+ goals
22%
Köpetdag Aşgabat 1+ goals
74%
Köpetdag Aşgabat 2+ goals
39%
Köpetdag Aşgabat 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Aşgabat (draw refunded)
57%
Köpetdag Aşgabat (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aşgabat at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.62 · 81 matches

Köpetdag Aşgabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aşgabat attack 1.32 + Köpetdag Aşgabat defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Köpetdag Aşgabat attack 1.09 + Aşgabat defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aşgabat scores more
43%
level
24%
Köpetdag Aşgabat scores more
32%

Aşgabat at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aşgabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Aşgabat 0–0 Köpetdag Aşgabat

Aşgabat and Köpetdag Aşgabat drew 0-0 in Ýokary Liga on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Nisa Çandybyl stadiony in Ashgabat.