Aşgabat 2–1 Energetik: Result & Stats | Ýokary Liga

Aşgabat

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Energetik

4/30/2024

Ýokary Liga · Round 11Nisa Çandybyl stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Aşgabat57%

×Draw22%

Energetik21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AşgabatExpected goals in this matchEnergetik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.09

Aşgabat

1.96

Energetik

1.09

Aşgabat creates 80% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 55 away

1.32

creates per match

0.56

1.62

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Aşgabat

1.32

Energetik

0.56

allows per match

Aşgabat

1.62

Energetik

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aşgabat+0.00on par

Energetik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aşgabat ↓

Energetik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Aşgabat or draw

79%

Aşgabat or Energetik

78%

Draw or Energetik

43%

Winning margin

Aşgabat wins by 2+

34%

Energetik wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aşgabat 1+ goals

86%

Aşgabat 2+ goals

58%

Aşgabat 3+ goals

31%

Energetik 1+ goals

66%

Energetik 2+ goals

30%

Energetik 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aşgabat (draw refunded)

73%

Energetik (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aşgabat at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.62 · 81 matches

Energetik away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aşgabat attack 1.32 + Energetik defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.96

Energetik attack 0.56 + Aşgabat defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Aşgabat scores more

57%

level

22%

Energetik scores more

21%

Aşgabat at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Aşgabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff