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Aşgabat vs Arkadag — Ýokary Liga 2020

Aşgabat
Aşgabat
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arkadag
Arkadag
12/11/2025Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Aşgabat11%
×Draw15%
Arkadag74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aşgabat
0.96
Arkadag
2.71

Arkadag creates 182% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 47 away

creates per match

Aşgabat
1.32
Arkadag
3.79

allows per match

Aşgabat
1.62
Arkadag
0.60

finishing

Aşgabat+0.00on par
Arkadag+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aşgabat ↓

Arkadag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Aşgabat or draw
26%
Aşgabat or Arkadag
85%
Draw or Arkadag
89%

Winning margin

Aşgabat wins by 2+
4%
Arkadag wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Aşgabat 1+ goals
62%
Aşgabat 2+ goals
25%
Aşgabat 3+ goals
7%
Arkadag 1+ goals
93%
Arkadag 2+ goals
75%
Arkadag 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Aşgabat (draw refunded)
13%
Arkadag (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aşgabat at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.62 · 81 matches

Arkadag away — creates 3.79, concedes 0.60 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aşgabat attack 1.32 + Arkadag defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.96

Arkadag attack 3.79 + Aşgabat defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Aşgabat scores more
11%
level
15%
Arkadag scores more
74%

Arkadag at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Arkadag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Aşgabat 0–1 Arkadag

Arkadag beat Aşgabat 1-0 in Ýokary Liga on December 11, 2025.