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Aşgabat vs Altyn Asyr — Ýokary Liga 2020

Aşgabat
Aşgabat
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
4/26/2025Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 8Sport toplumy stadiony Büzmeýin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Aşgabat25%
×Draw24%
Altyn Asyr51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aşgabat
1.12
Altyn Asyr
1.71

Altyn Asyr creates 53% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 83 away

creates per match

Aşgabat
1.32
Altyn Asyr
1.80

allows per match

Aşgabat
1.62
Altyn Asyr
0.92

finishing

Aşgabat+0.00on par
Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aşgabat ↓

Altyn Asyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aşgabat or draw
49%
Aşgabat or Altyn Asyr
76%
Draw or Altyn Asyr
75%

Winning margin

Aşgabat wins by 2+
10%
Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Aşgabat 1+ goals
67%
Aşgabat 2+ goals
31%
Aşgabat 3+ goals
10%
Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
82%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
51%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Aşgabat (draw refunded)
33%
Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aşgabat at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.62 · 81 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.92 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aşgabat attack 1.32 + Altyn Asyr defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.12

Altyn Asyr attack 1.80 + Aşgabat defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aşgabat scores more
25%
level
24%
Altyn Asyr scores more
51%

Altyn Asyr at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Aşgabat 3–1 Altyn Asyr

Aşgabat beat Altyn Asyr 3-1 in Ýokary Liga on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Sport toplumy stadiony Büzmeýin in Ashgabat.