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Aserri FC vs Limon FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Limon FC
Limon FC
10/23/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 17Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Aserri FC32%
×Draw26%
Limon FC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.25
Limon FC
1.47

Limon FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 16 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
Limon FC
1.69

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
Limon FC
1.19

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
Limon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

Limon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
58%
Aserri FC or Limon FC
74%
Draw or Limon FC
68%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
14%
Limon FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
71%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
36%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
13%
Limon FC 1+ goals
77%
Limon FC 2+ goals
43%
Limon FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
43%
Limon FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

Limon FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + Limon FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Limon FC attack 1.69 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aserri FC scores more
32%
level
26%
Limon FC scores more
42%

Limon FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Limon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aserri FC vs Limon FC

Limon FC beat Aserri FC 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge in San José.