Aserri FC 1–0 AS Puma Generalena: Result & Stats

Aserri FC

FT

1 – 0

AS Puma Generalena

9/29/2018

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 13Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto (Alajuela)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Aserri FC50%

×Draw25%

AS Puma Generalena25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aserri FCExpected goals in this matchAS Puma Generalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.08

Aserri FC

1.63

AS Puma Generalena

1.08

Aserri FC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 74 away

1.32

creates per match

0.92

1.25

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Aserri FC

1.32

AS Puma Generalena

0.92

allows per match

Aserri FC

1.25

AS Puma Generalena

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

AS Puma Generalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw

75%

Aserri FC or AS Puma Generalena

75%

Draw or AS Puma Generalena

50%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+

26%

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals

80%

Aserri FC 2+ goals

48%

Aserri FC 3+ goals

22%

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals

66%

AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals

29%

AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)

67%

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.93 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.92 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aserri FC scores more

50%

level

25%

AS Puma Generalena scores more

25%

Aserri FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aserri FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff