Aserri FC 1–2 AD Santa Rosa: Result & Stats

Aserri FC

FT

1 – 2

AD Santa Rosa

4/28/2019

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Alejandro Morera Soto (Alajuela)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Aserri FC44%

×Draw26%

AD Santa Rosa29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aserri FCExpected goals in this matchAD Santa Rosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.10

Aserri FC

1.42

AD Santa Rosa

1.10

Aserri FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 42 away

1.32

creates per match

0.95

1.25

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Aserri FC

1.32

AD Santa Rosa

0.95

allows per match

Aserri FC

1.25

AD Santa Rosa

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par

AD Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

AD Santa Rosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw

71%

Aserri FC or AD Santa Rosa

74%

Draw or AD Santa Rosa

56%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+

21%

AD Santa Rosa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals

76%

Aserri FC 2+ goals

41%

Aserri FC 3+ goals

17%

AD Santa Rosa 1+ goals

67%

AD Santa Rosa 2+ goals

30%

AD Santa Rosa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)

60%

AD Santa Rosa (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

AD Santa Rosa away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + AD Santa Rosa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

AD Santa Rosa attack 0.95 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aserri FC scores more

44%

level

26%

AD Santa Rosa scores more

29%

Aserri FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aserri FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff