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Asenovets vs Sokol Markovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Asenovets
Asenovets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
2/26/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 19Stadion Shipka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Asenovets59%
×Draw21%
Sokol Markovo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asenovets
2.02
Sokol Markovo
1.06

Asenovets creates 91% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 98 away

creates per match

Asenovets
1.61
Sokol Markovo
0.72

allows per match

Asenovets
1.40
Sokol Markovo
2.43

finishing

Asenovets+0.00on par
Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asenovets ↓

Sokol Markovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Asenovets or draw
81%
Asenovets or Sokol Markovo
79%
Draw or Sokol Markovo
41%

Winning margin

Asenovets wins by 2+
36%
Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Asenovets 1+ goals
87%
Asenovets 2+ goals
60%
Asenovets 3+ goals
33%
Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
65%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
29%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Asenovets (draw refunded)
75%
Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asenovets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.40 · 109 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asenovets attack 1.61 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.02

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Asenovets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Asenovets scores more
59%
level
21%
Sokol Markovo scores more
19%

Asenovets at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Asenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asenovets vs Sokol Markovo

Asenovets beat Sokol Markovo 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Shipka in Asenovgrad.