Asenovets 0–2 FK Svilengrad: Result & Stats

Asenovets

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FK Svilengrad

11/16/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 17Plovdiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Asenovets53%

×Draw22%

FK Svilengrad26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AsenovetsExpected goals in this matchFK Svilengrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.34

Asenovets

2.00

FK Svilengrad

1.34

Asenovets creates 49% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 18 away

1.61

creates per match

1.28

1.40

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Asenovets

1.61

FK Svilengrad

1.28

allows per match

Asenovets

1.40

FK Svilengrad

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asenovets+0.00on par

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asenovets ↓

FK Svilengrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Asenovets or draw

74%

Asenovets or FK Svilengrad

78%

Draw or FK Svilengrad

47%

Winning margin

Asenovets wins by 2+

31%

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Asenovets 1+ goals

86%

Asenovets 2+ goals

59%

Asenovets 3+ goals

32%

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals

74%

FK Svilengrad 2+ goals

39%

FK Svilengrad 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Asenovets (draw refunded)

67%

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asenovets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.40 · 109 matches

FK Svilengrad away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asenovets attack 1.61 + FK Svilengrad defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.00

FK Svilengrad attack 1.28 + Asenovets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Asenovets scores more

53%

level

22%

FK Svilengrad scores more

26%

Asenovets at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Asenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff