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Asenovets vs Borislav 2009 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Asenovets
Asenovets
FT
1 – 2
Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
10/13/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 10Stadion Shipka (Asenovgrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Asenovets58%
×Draw21%
Borislav 200921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asenovets
2.06
Borislav 2009
1.16

Asenovets creates 78% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 79 away

creates per match

Asenovets
1.61
Borislav 2009
0.91

allows per match

Asenovets
1.40
Borislav 2009
2.52

finishing

Asenovets+0.00on par
Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asenovets ↓

Borislav 2009 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Asenovets or draw
79%
Asenovets or Borislav 2009
79%
Draw or Borislav 2009
42%

Winning margin

Asenovets wins by 2+
35%
Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Asenovets 1+ goals
87%
Asenovets 2+ goals
61%
Asenovets 3+ goals
34%
Borislav 2009 1+ goals
69%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
32%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Asenovets (draw refunded)
73%
Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asenovets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.40 · 109 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asenovets attack 1.61 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.06

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Asenovets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Asenovets scores more
58%
level
21%
Borislav 2009 scores more
21%

Asenovets at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Asenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asenovets vs Borislav 2009

Borislav 2009 beat Asenovets 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Shipka (Asenovgrad).