Asenovets 4–0 Beroe II: Result & Stats

Asenovets

FT

4 – 0

Beroe II

4/6/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 28Stadion Shipka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Asenovets62%

×Draw20%

Beroe II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AsenovetsExpected goals in this matchBeroe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.08

Asenovets

2.19

Beroe II

1.08

Asenovets creates 103% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 55 away

1.61

creates per match

0.76

1.40

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Asenovets

1.61

Beroe II

0.76

allows per match

Asenovets

1.40

Beroe II

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asenovets+0.00on par

Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asenovets ↓

Beroe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Asenovets or draw

82%

Asenovets or Beroe II

80%

Draw or Beroe II

38%

Winning margin

Asenovets wins by 2+

39%

Beroe II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Asenovets 1+ goals

89%

Asenovets 2+ goals

64%

Asenovets 3+ goals

37%

Beroe II 1+ goals

66%

Beroe II 2+ goals

29%

Beroe II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Asenovets (draw refunded)

78%

Beroe II (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asenovets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.40 · 109 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asenovets attack 1.61 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.19

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Asenovets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Asenovets scores more

62%

level

20%

Beroe II scores more

18%

Asenovets at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Asenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff