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ASEC Ndiambour vs Mbour Petite Côte — Ligue 1 2019

ASEC Ndiambour
ASEC Ndiambour
FT
1 – 1
Mbour Petite Côte
Mbour Petite Côte
1/31/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Alboury Ndiaye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

ASEC Ndiambour46%
×Draw31%
Mbour Petite Côte23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASEC Ndiambour
1.14
Mbour Petite Côte
0.72

ASEC Ndiambour creates 58% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

ASEC Ndiambour
0.97
Mbour Petite Côte
0.48

allows per match

ASEC Ndiambour
0.97
Mbour Petite Côte
1.30

finishing

ASEC Ndiambour+0.00on par
Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASEC Ndiambour ↓

Mbour Petite Côte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

ASEC Ndiambour or draw
77%
ASEC Ndiambour or Mbour Petite Côte
69%
Draw or Mbour Petite Côte
54%

Winning margin

ASEC Ndiambour wins by 2+
20%
Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ASEC Ndiambour 1+ goals
68%
ASEC Ndiambour 2+ goals
32%
ASEC Ndiambour 3+ goals
11%
Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals
51%
Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals
16%
Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ASEC Ndiambour (draw refunded)
66%
Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASEC Ndiambour at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Mbour Petite Côte away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASEC Ndiambour attack 0.97 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.48 + ASEC Ndiambour defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ASEC Ndiambour scores more
46%
level
31%
Mbour Petite Côte scores more
23%

ASEC Ndiambour at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ASEC Ndiambour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: ASEC Ndiambour 1–1 Mbour Petite Côte

ASEC Ndiambour and Mbour Petite Côte drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Alboury Ndiaye in Louga.