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ASEC Ndiambour vs La Linguère — Ligue 1 2019

ASEC Ndiambour
ASEC Ndiambour
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Linguère
La Linguère
5/22/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Centre Technique FIFA Jules-François Bocandé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

ASEC Ndiambour38%
×Draw34%
La Linguère28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASEC Ndiambour
0.94
La Linguère
0.77

ASEC Ndiambour creates 22% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 69 away

creates per match

ASEC Ndiambour
0.97
La Linguère
0.58

allows per match

ASEC Ndiambour
0.97
La Linguère
0.91

finishing

ASEC Ndiambour+0.00on par
La Linguère+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASEC Ndiambour ↓

La Linguère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

ASEC Ndiambour or draw
72%
ASEC Ndiambour or La Linguère
66%
Draw or La Linguère
62%

Winning margin

ASEC Ndiambour wins by 2+
14%
La Linguère wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ASEC Ndiambour 1+ goals
61%
ASEC Ndiambour 2+ goals
24%
ASEC Ndiambour 3+ goals
7%
La Linguère 1+ goals
54%
La Linguère 2+ goals
18%
La Linguère 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ASEC Ndiambour (draw refunded)
57%
La Linguère (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASEC Ndiambour at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

La Linguère away — creates 0.58, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASEC Ndiambour attack 0.97 + La Linguère defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

La Linguère attack 0.58 + ASEC Ndiambour defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ASEC Ndiambour scores more
38%
level
34%
La Linguère scores more
28%

ASEC Ndiambour at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ASEC Ndiambour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASEC Ndiambour vs La Linguère

ASEC Ndiambour beat La Linguère 2-0 in Ligue 1 on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Centre Technique FIFA Jules-François Bocandé in Toubab Dialao.