ASEC Ndiambour 0–0 Génération Foot: Result & Stats

ASEC Ndiambour

FT

0 – 0

Génération Foot

3/8/2020

Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade Alboury Ndiaye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

ASEC Ndiambour32%

×Draw32%

Génération Foot36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASEC NdiambourExpected goals in this matchGénération Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.97

ASEC Ndiambour

0.90

Génération Foot

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 88 away

0.97

creates per match

0.98

0.97

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

ASEC Ndiambour

0.97

Génération Foot

0.98

allows per match

ASEC Ndiambour

0.97

Génération Foot

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASEC Ndiambour+0.00on par

Génération Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASEC Ndiambour ↓

Génération Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ASEC Ndiambour or draw

64%

ASEC Ndiambour or Génération Foot

68%

Draw or Génération Foot

68%

Winning margin

ASEC Ndiambour wins by 2+

11%

Génération Foot wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

ASEC Ndiambour 1+ goals

59%

ASEC Ndiambour 2+ goals

23%

ASEC Ndiambour 3+ goals

6%

Génération Foot 1+ goals

62%

Génération Foot 2+ goals

25%

Génération Foot 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ASEC Ndiambour (draw refunded)

47%

Génération Foot (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASEC Ndiambour at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Génération Foot away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASEC Ndiambour attack 0.97 + Génération Foot defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Génération Foot attack 0.98 + ASEC Ndiambour defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

ASEC Ndiambour scores more

32%

level

32%

Génération Foot scores more

36%

Génération Foot at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Génération Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff