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ASEC Ndiambour vs Casa Sport — Ligue 1 2019

ASEC Ndiambour
ASEC Ndiambour
FT
1 – 1
Casa Sport
Casa Sport
5/9/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade Alboury Ndiaye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

ASEC Ndiambour36%
×Draw32%
Casa Sport32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASEC Ndiambour
0.98
Casa Sport
0.89

ASEC Ndiambour creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 88 away

creates per match

ASEC Ndiambour
0.97
Casa Sport
0.81

allows per match

ASEC Ndiambour
0.97
Casa Sport
0.99

finishing

ASEC Ndiambour+0.00on par
Casa Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASEC Ndiambour ↓

Casa Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

ASEC Ndiambour or draw
68%
ASEC Ndiambour or Casa Sport
68%
Draw or Casa Sport
64%

Winning margin

ASEC Ndiambour wins by 2+
14%
Casa Sport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ASEC Ndiambour 1+ goals
62%
ASEC Ndiambour 2+ goals
26%
ASEC Ndiambour 3+ goals
8%
Casa Sport 1+ goals
59%
Casa Sport 2+ goals
22%
Casa Sport 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ASEC Ndiambour (draw refunded)
54%
Casa Sport (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASEC Ndiambour at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Casa Sport away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASEC Ndiambour attack 0.97 + Casa Sport defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98

Casa Sport attack 0.81 + ASEC Ndiambour defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

ASEC Ndiambour scores more
36%
level
32%
Casa Sport scores more
32%

ASEC Ndiambour at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "ASEC Ndiambour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASEC Ndiambour vs Casa Sport

ASEC Ndiambour and Casa Sport drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Alboury Ndiaye in Louga.