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ASEC Mimosas vs WAC — Ligue 1 2019

ASEC Mimosas
ASEC Mimosas
FT
3 – 1
WAC
WAC
12/22/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

ASEC Mimosas56%
×Draw25%
WAC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASEC Mimosas
1.57
WAC
0.80

ASEC Mimosas creates 96% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 10 away

creates per match

ASEC Mimosas
1.44
WAC
1.00

allows per match

ASEC Mimosas
0.61
WAC
1.70

finishing

ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par
WAC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASEC Mimosas ↓

WAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

ASEC Mimosas or draw
81%
ASEC Mimosas or WAC
75%
Draw or WAC
44%

Winning margin

ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+
29%
WAC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals
79%
ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals
46%
ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals
21%
WAC 1+ goals
55%
WAC 2+ goals
19%
WAC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)
74%
WAC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASEC Mimosas at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.61 · 94 matches

WAC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.44 + WAC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.57

WAC attack 1.00 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ASEC Mimosas scores more
56%
level
25%
WAC scores more
19%

ASEC Mimosas at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASEC Mimosas vs WAC

ASEC Mimosas beat WAC 3-1 in Ligue 1 on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.