ASEC Mimosas 0–0 Simba: Result & Stats

ASEC Mimosas

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Simba

2/23/2024

CAF Champions League · Group B - 5Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

ASEC Mimosas52%

×Draw30%

Simba18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASEC MimosasExpected goals in this matchSimba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.58

ASEC Mimosas

1.22

Simba

0.58

ASEC Mimosas creates 110% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

1.56

creates per match

0.83

0.33

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

ASEC Mimosas

1.56

Simba

0.83

allows per match

ASEC Mimosas

0.33

Simba

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASEC Mimosas ↓

Simba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ASEC Mimosas or draw

82%

ASEC Mimosas or Simba

70%

Draw or Simba

48%

Winning margin

ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+

24%

Simba wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals

70%

ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals

34%

ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals

12%

Simba 1+ goals

44%

Simba 2+ goals

12%

Simba 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)

75%

Simba (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASEC Mimosas at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Simba away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.56 + Simba defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.22

Simba attack 0.83 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ASEC Mimosas scores more

52%

level

30%

Simba scores more

18%

ASEC Mimosas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff