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ASEC Mimosas vs Lys Sassandra — Ligue 1 2019

ASEC Mimosas
ASEC Mimosas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lys Sassandra
Lys Sassandra
12/19/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12Complexe Sportif de Bingerville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

ASEC Mimosas48%
×Draw29%
Lys Sassandra23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASEC Mimosas
1.26
Lys Sassandra
0.77

ASEC Mimosas creates 64% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 59 away

creates per match

ASEC Mimosas
1.44
Lys Sassandra
0.92

allows per match

ASEC Mimosas
0.61
Lys Sassandra
1.08

finishing

ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par
Lys Sassandra+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASEC Mimosas ↓

Lys Sassandra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ASEC Mimosas or draw
77%
ASEC Mimosas or Lys Sassandra
71%
Draw or Lys Sassandra
52%

Winning margin

ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+
22%
Lys Sassandra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals
72%
ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals
36%
ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals
13%
Lys Sassandra 1+ goals
54%
Lys Sassandra 2+ goals
18%
Lys Sassandra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)
68%
Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASEC Mimosas at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.61 · 94 matches

Lys Sassandra away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.44 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.26

Lys Sassandra attack 0.92 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ASEC Mimosas scores more
48%
level
29%
Lys Sassandra scores more
23%

ASEC Mimosas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: ASEC Mimosas 2–0 Lys Sassandra

ASEC Mimosas beat Lys Sassandra 2-0 in Ligue 1 on December 19, 2024.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Bingerville in Bingerville.