ASEC Mimosas 2–0 Issia Wazi: Result & Stats

ASEC Mimosas

FT

2 – 0

Issia Wazi

3/3/2020

Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

ASEC Mimosas52%

×Draw27%

Issia Wazi21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASEC MimosasExpected goals in this matchIssia Wazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.80

ASEC Mimosas

1.42

Issia Wazi

0.80

ASEC Mimosas creates 77% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 10 away

1.44

creates per match

1.00

0.61

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

ASEC Mimosas

1.44

Issia Wazi

1.00

allows per match

ASEC Mimosas

0.61

Issia Wazi

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Issia Wazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASEC Mimosas ↓

Issia Wazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

ASEC Mimosas or draw

79%

ASEC Mimosas or Issia Wazi

73%

Draw or Issia Wazi

48%

Winning margin

ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+

26%

Issia Wazi wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals

76%

ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals

41%

ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals

17%

Issia Wazi 1+ goals

55%

Issia Wazi 2+ goals

19%

Issia Wazi 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)

71%

Issia Wazi (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASEC Mimosas at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.61 · 94 matches

Issia Wazi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.44 + Issia Wazi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Issia Wazi attack 1.00 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ASEC Mimosas scores more

52%

level

27%

Issia Wazi scores more

21%

ASEC Mimosas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff