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ASEC Mimosas vs Horoya — CAF Champions League 2019

ASEC Mimosas
ASEC Mimosas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Horoya
Horoya
10/9/2022CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade de Yamoussoukro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

ASEC Mimosas67%
×Draw24%
Horoya9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASEC Mimosas
1.58
Horoya
0.40

ASEC Mimosas creates 295% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

creates per match

ASEC Mimosas
1.56
Horoya
0.47

allows per match

ASEC Mimosas
0.33
Horoya
1.59

finishing

ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par
Horoya+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASEC Mimosas ↓

Horoya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ASEC Mimosas or draw
91%
ASEC Mimosas or Horoya
76%
Draw or Horoya
33%

Winning margin

ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+
37%
Horoya wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals
79%
ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals
47%
ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals
21%
Horoya 1+ goals
33%
Horoya 2+ goals
6%
Horoya 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)
88%
Horoya (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASEC Mimosas at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Horoya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.56 + Horoya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Horoya attack 0.47 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

ASEC Mimosas scores more
67%
level
24%
Horoya scores more
9%

ASEC Mimosas at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASEC Mimosas vs Horoya

Horoya beat ASEC Mimosas 1-0 in CAF Champions League on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Yamoussoukro in Yamoussoukro.