ASEC Mimosas 3–0 Galaxy: Result & Stats

ASEC Mimosas

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Galaxy

S. Karamoko 90+1'

E. Aka 80'

A. Leibé 11'

12/19/2023

CAF Champions League · Group B - 4Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

ASEC Mimosas70%

×Draw20%

Galaxy9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASEC MimosasExpected goals in this matchGalaxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.52

ASEC Mimosas

1.89

Galaxy

0.52

ASEC Mimosas creates 263% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.56

creates per match

0.71

0.33

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

ASEC Mimosas

1.56

Galaxy

0.71

allows per match

ASEC Mimosas

0.33

Galaxy

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASEC Mimosas ↓

Galaxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

ASEC Mimosas or draw

91%

ASEC Mimosas or Galaxy

80%

Draw or Galaxy

30%

Winning margin

ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+

43%

Galaxy wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals

85%

ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals

56%

ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals

29%

Galaxy 1+ goals

41%

Galaxy 2+ goals

10%

Galaxy 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)

88%

Galaxy (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASEC Mimosas at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Galaxy away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.56 + Galaxy defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.89

Galaxy attack 0.71 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

ASEC Mimosas scores more

70%

level

20%

Galaxy scores more

9%

ASEC Mimosas at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

F. Zouzou

ASEC Mimosas · D

8.9

Match Events

11'

A. Leibé↳ W. Coulibaly

46'

W. Rudath← T. Ramatlapeng

68'

A. Dagrou← A. Leibé

70'

C. Dube← G. Baruti

73'

F. Thulare← K. Mpolokang

80'

E. Aka↳ M. Trésor

81'

R. Thatanyane← D. Msendami

84'

Lesego Kereedilwe

89'

S. Karamoko← M. Trésor

90+4'

A. Bada← S. Diarrassouba

90+4'

S. Coulibaly← S. Pokou

90+1'

S. Karamoko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ASECGalaxy

Overview

56%Possession44%

21Total Shots6

4Corners8

15Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots6

9On Target0

8Off Target6

4Blocked0

13Inside Box2

8Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

487Total Passes379

406Accurate Passes286

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1