Ascoli 1–1 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ascoli

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Virtus Entella

A. Sabiri 84'

M. Mancosu 72' (pen)

11/22/2020

Serie B · Round 8Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Ascoli48%

×Draw27%

Virtus Entella25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscoliExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.94

Ascoli

1.41

Virtus Entella

0.94

Ascoli creates 50% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 56 away

1.18

creates per match

0.77

1.10

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Ascoli

1.18

Virtus Entella

0.77

allows per match

Ascoli

1.10

Virtus Entella

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw

75%

Ascoli or Virtus Entella

73%

Draw or Virtus Entella

52%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+

23%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals

76%

Ascoli 2+ goals

41%

Ascoli 3+ goals

17%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

61%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

24%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)

66%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.10 · 114 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.64 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.18 + Virtus Entella defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Virtus Entella attack 0.77 + Ascoli defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ascoli scores more

48%

level

27%

Virtus Entella scores more

25%

Ascoli at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Mancosu

Virtus Entella · F

7.7

Match Events

22'

30'

36'

56'

56'

60'

R. Pucino← G. Cangiano

63'

L. Morosini← C. Cardoselli

63'

M. Mancosu← T. Petrović

69'

C. Chiricò← Ľ. Tupta

70'

Gabriele Corbo

72'

M. MancosuPenalty

76'

N. Pierini← M. Cavion

76'

M. Crimi← A. Settembrini

79'

Marco Chiosa

80'

M. Toscano← A. Paolucci

83'

Leonardo Morosini

84'

A. Sabiri

90'

Cosimo Chiricò

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AscoliVirtus

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots17

2Corners6

16Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots17

4On Target3

2Off Target9

3Blocked5

5Inside Box9

4Outside Box8

Passing

49%Possession51%

405Total Passes396

316Accurate Passes308

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards0

4Offsides4