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Ascoli vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
L. Clemenza 3'
M. Aramu 90'
12/9/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 18Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ascoli49%
×Draw27%
Virtus Entella24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.39
Virtus Entella
0.89

Ascoli creates 56% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 60 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
0.68

allows per match

Ascoli
1.10
Virtus Entella
1.62

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
76%
Ascoli or Virtus Entella
73%
Draw or Virtus Entella
51%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
23%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
75%
Ascoli 2+ goals
40%
Ascoli 3+ goals
16%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
59%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
22%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
67%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.15 + Virtus Entella defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Virtus Entella attack 0.68 + Ascoli defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ascoli scores more
49%
level
27%
Virtus Entella scores more
24%

Ascoli at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
L. Clemenza
33'
E. Baldini← I. Lores
40'
Luca Clemenza
44'
I. De Santis← A. Mengoni
52'
Andrea La Mantia
58'
M. Di Paola← M. Troiano
63'
Marco Crimi
66'
Ivan Lanni
66'
Giuseppe De Luca
72'
M. Aramu← M. Crimi
79'
M. Currarino← D. Diaw
80'
C. Santini← L. Perez
90'
Daniele Buzzegoli
90'
M. Aramu

Possession

49%Ascoli

Shots

5Ascoli

Statistics

AscoliVirtus
Overview
49%Possession51%
5Total Shots10
4Corners3
13Fouls13
Shots
5Total Shots10
1On Target2
4Off Target8
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Serie B: Ascoli 1–1 Virtus Entella

Ascoli and Virtus Entella drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 9, 2017.

Goals: L. Clemenza (3'), M. Aramu (90').

Virtus Entella controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.