Ascoli 3–1 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ascoli

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spezia

E. Padella 90+3'

M. Cavion 46'

M. Ardemagni 1'

D. Okereke 55'

12/1/2018

Serie B · Round 14Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Ascoli40%

×Draw28%

Spezia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscoliExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.12

Ascoli

1.26

Spezia

1.12

Ascoli creates 13% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 98 away

1.16

creates per match

1.12

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Ascoli

1.16

Spezia

1.12

allows per match

Ascoli

1.12

Spezia

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par

Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw

67%

Ascoli or Spezia

72%

Draw or Spezia

60%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+

17%

Spezia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals

72%

Ascoli 2+ goals

36%

Ascoli 3+ goals

13%

Spezia 1+ goals

67%

Spezia 2+ goals

31%

Spezia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)

55%

Spezia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.12 · 119 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.16 + Spezia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Spezia attack 1.12 + Ascoli defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ascoli scores more

40%

level

28%

Spezia scores more

33%

Ascoli at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

M. Ardemagni↳ N. Ninković

46'

48'

49'

49'

55'

56'

59'

E. Padella← M. Ngombo

59'

T. Kupisz← M. Ngombo

68'

Soufiane Bidaoui

74'

N. Pierini← P. Bartolomei

85'

S. Gudjohnsen← E. Gyasi

85'

A. De Francesco← L. Mora

86'

L. Rosseti← M. Ardemagni

90'

90'

90'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AscoliSpezia

Overview

40%Possession60%

5Total Shots10

2Corners9

12Fouls16

Shots

5Total Shots10

4On Target4

1Off Target6

Passing

40%Possession60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls16

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards1

2Offsides2

Serie B: Ascoli 3–1 Spezia

Ascoli beat Spezia 3-1 in Serie B on December 1, 2018.

Goals: M. Ardemagni (1'), M. Cavion (46'), D. Okereke (55'), E. Padella (90+3').

Spezia controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.

Ascoli vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Serie B: Ascoli 3–1 Spezia