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Ascoli vs Salernitana — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Salernitana
Salernitana
G. Beretta 48'
N. Ninković 3'
L. Jallow 90+6', 40'
T. Casasola 18'
E. Calaiò 13'
2/16/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 24Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Ascoli44%
×Draw28%
Salernitana28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.29
Salernitana
0.98

Ascoli creates 32% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 77 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.16
Salernitana
0.84

allows per match

Ascoli
1.12
Salernitana
1.43

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Salernitana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
72%
Ascoli or Salernitana
72%
Draw or Salernitana
56%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
20%
Salernitana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
72%
Ascoli 2+ goals
37%
Ascoli 3+ goals
14%
Salernitana 1+ goals
62%
Salernitana 2+ goals
26%
Salernitana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
61%
Salernitana (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.12 · 119 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.43 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.16 + Salernitana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Salernitana attack 0.84 + Ascoli defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ascoli scores more
44%
level
28%
Salernitana scores more
28%

Ascoli at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
N. Ninković↳ D. Frattesi
13'
E. Calaiò
15'
Walter López
18'
T. Casasola
40'
L. Jallow
46'
B. Addae← G. Iñíguez
46'
G. Beretta← A. Ciciretti
48'
G. Beretta↳ E. Padella
53'
Emanuele Padella
56'
V. Mantovani← R. Perticone
60'
A. Vuletich← E. Calaiò
61'
Joseph Minala
72'
R. Pucino← T. Casasola
76'
Raffaele Pucino
78'
Simone Ganz
79'
Guillaume Gigliotti
81'
Simone Ganz
84'
Bright Addae
88'
M. Chajia← L. Laverone
90+6'
L. Jallow

Possession

42%Ascoli

Shots

14Ascoli

Statistics

AscoliSalernitana
Overview
42%Possession58%
14Total Shots12
4Corners8
18Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots12
6On Target7
8Off Target5
Passing
42%Possession58%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls12
3Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Serie B: Ascoli 2–4 Salernitana

Salernitana beat Ascoli 4-2 in Serie B on February 16, 2019.

Goals: N. Ninković (3'), E. Calaiò (13'), T. Casasola (18'), L. Jallow (40', 90+6'), G. Beretta (48').

Salernitana controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.