Ascoli 1–0 Pisa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ascoli

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pisa

M. Cavion 68'

12/26/2019

Serie B · Round 18Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Ascoli39%

×Draw28%

Pisa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscoliExpected goals in this matchPisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.15

Ascoli

1.26

Pisa

1.15

Ascoli creates 10% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 117 away

1.16

creates per match

1.20

1.09

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Ascoli

1.16

Pisa

1.20

allows per match

Ascoli

1.09

Pisa

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par

Pisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Pisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw

66%

Ascoli or Pisa

72%

Draw or Pisa

61%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+

17%

Pisa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals

72%

Ascoli 2+ goals

36%

Ascoli 3+ goals

13%

Pisa 1+ goals

68%

Pisa 2+ goals

32%

Pisa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)

54%

Pisa (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.09 · 118 matches

Pisa away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.36 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.16 + Pisa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Pisa attack 1.20 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ascoli scores more

39%

level

28%

Pisa scores more

34%

Ascoli at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Petrucci

Ascoli · M

7.9

Match Events

44'

Mario Piccinocchi

52'

Alessandro De Vitis

63'

M. Ardemagni← M. Piccinocchi

68'

M. Cavion↳ C. Andreoni

69'

N. Siega← M. Pinato

71'

D. Moscardelli← G. Ingrosso

74'

Simone Benedetti

77'

D. Di Quinzio← D. Liotti

79'

A. Gerbo← G. Scamacca

83'

Nicola Leali

84'

M. Troiano← C. Andreoni

90'

Alberto Gerbo

90'

Ramzi Aya

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AscoliPisa

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots7

3Corners4

12Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots7

5On Target1

10Off Target5

2Blocked1

11Inside Box1

6Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

474Total Passes335

374Accurate Passes248

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Serie B: Ascoli 1–0 Pisa

Ascoli beat Pisa 1-0 in Serie B on December 26, 2019.

Goals: M. Cavion (68').

Ascoli controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.

Ascoli vs Pisa — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Ascoli 1–0 Pisa