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Ascoli vs Perugia — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Perugia
Perugia
6/21/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 29Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Ascoli40%
×Draw28%
Perugia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.25
Perugia
1.09

Ascoli creates 15% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 77 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.18
Perugia
1.09

allows per match

Ascoli
1.09
Perugia
1.32

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Perugia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Perugia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
68%
Ascoli or Perugia
72%
Draw or Perugia
60%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
18%
Perugia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
71%
Ascoli 2+ goals
36%
Ascoli 3+ goals
13%
Perugia 1+ goals
66%
Perugia 2+ goals
30%
Perugia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
55%
Perugia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 114 matches

Perugia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.18 + Perugia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Perugia attack 1.09 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ascoli scores more
40%
level
28%
Perugia scores more
32%

Ascoli at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ascoli vs Perugia

Perugia beat Ascoli 1-0 in Serie B on June 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.