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Ascoli vs Lecco — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Lecco
Lecco
3/17/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 30Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ascoli53%
×Draw25%
Lecco22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.65
Lecco
0.97

Ascoli creates 70% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.18
Lecco
0.84

allows per match

Ascoli
1.09
Lecco
2.11

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Lecco+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Lecco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
78%
Ascoli or Lecco
75%
Draw or Lecco
47%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
29%
Lecco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
81%
Ascoli 2+ goals
49%
Ascoli 3+ goals
23%
Lecco 1+ goals
62%
Lecco 2+ goals
25%
Lecco 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
71%
Lecco (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 114 matches

Lecco away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.18 + Lecco defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lecco attack 0.84 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ascoli scores more
53%
level
25%
Lecco scores more
22%

Ascoli at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ascoli vs Lecco

Ascoli beat Lecco 4-1 in Serie B on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.