Ascoli 2–2 Juve Stabia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ascoli

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Juve Stabia

2/7/2020

Serie B · Round 23Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ascoli45%

×Draw27%

Juve Stabia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscoliExpected goals in this matchJuve Stabia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.01

Ascoli

1.35

Juve Stabia

1.01

Ascoli creates 34% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 60 away

1.18

creates per match

0.92

1.09

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Ascoli

1.18

Juve Stabia

0.92

allows per match

Ascoli

1.09

Juve Stabia

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par

Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Juve Stabia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw

72%

Ascoli or Juve Stabia

73%

Draw or Juve Stabia

55%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+

21%

Juve Stabia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals

74%

Ascoli 2+ goals

39%

Ascoli 3+ goals

15%

Juve Stabia 1+ goals

64%

Juve Stabia 2+ goals

27%

Juve Stabia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)

61%

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 114 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.18 + Juve Stabia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Juve Stabia attack 0.92 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ascoli scores more

45%

level

27%

Juve Stabia scores more

28%

Ascoli at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff