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Ascoli vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Empoli
Empoli
I. De Santis 76'
N. Ninković 66'
R. Krunić 15'
2/10/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 25Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Ascoli38%
×Draw27%
Empoli35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.25
Empoli
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.16
Empoli
1.25

allows per match

Ascoli
1.11
Empoli
1.34

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Empoli+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
65%
Ascoli or Empoli
73%
Draw or Empoli
62%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
17%
Empoli wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
71%
Ascoli 2+ goals
36%
Ascoli 3+ goals
13%
Empoli 1+ goals
69%
Empoli 2+ goals
33%
Empoli 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
52%
Empoli (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.11 · 118 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.16 + Empoli defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Empoli attack 1.25 + Ascoli defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ascoli scores more
38%
level
27%
Empoli scores more
35%

Ascoli at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
R. Krunić↳ M. Zajc
32'
Ismaël Bennacer
34'
Bright Addae
39'
S. Ganz← I. Lores
46'
G. Carpani← B. Addae
49'
Michele Castagnetti
58'
Rade Krunić
62'
N. Ninković← A. Donnarumma
64'
L. Clemenza← V. Mogos
66'
N. Ninković↳ G. Di Lorenzo
76'
I. De Santis↳ T. Bianchi
79'
L. Lollo← M. Zajc
81'
Ivan De Santis
85'
Nikola Ninković
90'
S. Luperto← I. Bennacer

Possession

45%Ascoli

Shots

6Ascoli

Statistics

AscoliEmpoli
Overview
45%Possession55%
6Total Shots3
4Corners1
16Fouls15
Shots
6Total Shots3
1On Target2
5Off Target1
Passing
45%Possession55%
Discipline
16Fouls15
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
3Offsides4

Serie B: Ascoli 1–2 Empoli

Empoli beat Ascoli 2-1 in Serie B on February 10, 2018.

Goals: R. Krunić (15'), N. Ninković (66'), I. De Santis (76').

Empoli controlled possession (55%) and registered 3 shots to 6.

The match was played at Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.